Hey, it’s Robert (otherwise known as Infra on YouTube and X)!

Bitcoin just passed its first real stress test of 2026, and it didn’t behave the way it usually does.

Here’s why that matters ⬇️

Bitcoin’s first week:

Bitcoin is off to a strong start in 2026, but the real story isn’t the price.

It’s how Bitcoin held up during a period of rising geopolitical stress.

That’s not how this usually goes.

After several months of weakness, Bitcoin has staged a very impressive start to 2026. Geopolitical tensions are high as ever, and yet Bitcoin has shown remarkable strength in spite of once-in-a-generation geopolitical events, such as the recent US military operation in Venezuela over the past weekend. Currently, Bitcoin is leading not just the S&P 500 and Nasdaq (to which Bitcoin is often highly correlated), but even the prior year’s high flyers in gold and silver.

While many proponents of Bitcoin have long understood the ‘safe-haven’ attributes that Bitcoin possesses, the broader market has been less quick to adopt the same view. We’ve seen numerous risk-off events where bitcoin gets sold along with other risk assets, generally in larger magnitude. One such recent event was the US military action against Iran in 2024, where Bitcoin sold off more than 1%, then proceeded to move even lower the following day.

Today, the situation looks quite different, and the change in performance probably shouldn’t be discounted. While the unilateral military action undertaken by the US remains a constant between the two events, Bitcoin’s price performance indicates the market might be coming around to what long-time bitcoin holders have long understood- Bitcoin offers significant value in its ability to offer full self-sovereignty over an immutably scarce asset.  

Why Bitcoin is a better version of gold

Gold is still the classic safe haven. But it has a structural weakness.

Bitcoin doesn’t.

Another key distinction becomes apparent when comparing Bitcoin to the traditional safe-haven assets like gold: Bitcoin is one of the only assets in the world that can be freely traded in a deep & (very) liquid market, 24hrs a day, seven days per week. Governments like the US have tended to prefer conducting military operations after major markets close on Friday and before futures markets open on Sunday evening. Both the strikes on Iran, and the recent action in Venezuela have occurred between Friday’s close and Sunday’s open.

While those looking to increase exposure to gold have to either accept outdated pricing (such as through physical bullion dealers) or wait for futures markets to open on Sunday afternoon, Bitcoin allows 24/7 access for those seeking to increase (or decrease) their exposure. 

The dollar…

One advantage is structural: Bitcoin trades 24/7 in deep, liquid markets.

In geopolitical crises, the dollar usually rallies…This time, it didn’t.

That’s a big deal.

Another key point worth noting in the context of the recent military actions against Venezuela is for what is NOT performing as usual- the dollar. For decades, in situations of high-risk geopolitical tensions, the dollar would rally as a safe haven asset, but not this time. While mounting a rally on Sunday evening after futures markets opened, the dollar then gave up all of those gains. While the recent balance of trade data was a bullish tailwind, the dollar will probably suffer from downward pressure as foreigners wake up to the tectonic shifts in the world order:

As we appear to be witnessing an end to the decades-old ‘rules-based order’, it is pretty difficult to find a bullish case for the dollar in the face of recent geopolitical events. If the dollar continues to see downside for a second consecutive year, assets like Bitcoin should benefit. For perspective, following the 2003 invasion of Iraq (which had arguably even more outside support), the dollar would still end up seeing more than a 20% decline in the coming years. Such a decline today, would break a nearly twenty-year uptrend, and could take the widely-watched “DXY” down to levels below 75.

So what?

This doesn’t mean Bitcoin is a guaranteed safe haven. But it may be entering a new phase.

And that matters for 2026.

Beyond geopolitics, markets are also adjusting to the policy implications of a Trump administration. Expectations of looser fiscal policy, higher deficits, and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve point toward a more liquidity-friendly environment, even if the path remains volatile. Historically, that combination has weighed on the dollar while benefiting scarce, non-sovereign assets — and Bitcoin appears uniquely positioned to capture that shift as it increasingly trades less like a risk asset and more like an independent monetary alternative.

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